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March 12th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
James Jimenez is the Director of Comelec’s Education and Information Department and the go-to-guy for any question about elections. He hasn’t renewed his Mensa membership but they let him keep the extra IQ points that come free when you join them.
In this bit of writing he did on Facebook, he talks about the theory of why being number one on any list makes a difference.
I guess this bit of discussion comes from the fact that Noynoy Aquino will not be number one on the 2010 election ballot, much to his dismay.
Read on, expand your mind — or what’s left of it.
Benford, shmenford
Today at 1:05am
I wish Dr. Felix Muga – an old friend from when I used to comment on Filipino Voices – could have explained Benford’s Law better to reporters. You see, ABS-CBN’s Ryan Chua quoted him.
Dr. Felix Muga, a mathematics professor at the Ateneo de Manila, cites Benford’s law in statistics, which states that “in lists of numbers from many (but not all) real-life sources of data… the first digit 1 is almost one third of the time, and larger digits occur as the leading digit with lower and lower frequency…”
Thus, if a candidate is associated with the numeral 1 or is first on the list, he or she has 30 percent more chances of “occurring” or being chosen than others. Those close to his or her name have good but lesser chances.
“The effect is usually on the undecided voters. Their tendency is to go to the number one on the list first,” Muga says.
Now, just from that snippet, it’s pretty hard to say whether it was the good Dr.Muga who gave the explanation or Mr. Chua, but it’s a deadringer for a wikipedia entry:
Benford’s law, also called the first-digit law, states that in lists of numbers from many (but not all) real-life sources of data, the leading digit is distributed in a specific, non-uniform way. According to this law, the first digit is 1 almost one third of the time, and larger digits occur as the leading digit with lower and lower frequency, to the point where 9 as a first digit occurs less than one time in twenty.
The only difference being that the first quote didn’t make sense (an editorial oversight, probably), while the second one was clear as crystal.
According to the Wikipedia, Benford’s law simply states that in many lists of numbers most of the first digits will be a one (1). Two’s are less common, three’s are even rarer, and nine’s are the least common of all. You get it, right?
Okay. So,where does it say that “Thus, if a candidate is associated with the numeral 1 or is first on the list, he or she has 30 percent more chances of “occurring” or being chosen than others. Those close to his or her name have good but lesser chances.”
That word “thus” in that quote is so misplaced because Benford’s rule apparently doesn’t support the conclusion being forcibly drawn from it. Writing a multi-digit number that starts with the number one is such a far cry from “picking the first on the list” that it boggles the mind how such a connection could even be made. That’s like a textbook non sequitur, baby. It simply does not follow.
In fact, it CANNOT follow.
The closest that Benford’s law has so far come to elections is when it was used to “hint” at possible fraud in the Iranian elections recently.
To dig deeper, Boudewijn Roukema of Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Poland, used a mathematical tool called Benford’s law. In many random sets of data, numbers are more likely to begin with 1 than any other digit. The next most frequent starting digit is 2, then 3 and so on, in a precise relationship. The law applies to any set of numbers scattered randomly on a logarithmic scale.
Any deviation from this pattern could suggest that figures have been manipulated. This has been used to uncover tax fraud and false expenses claims, and Roukema now says it points to fraud in the Iranian election. He analysed the vote counts reported for the four candidates in 366 districts. Votes for three of the candidates fit expected patterns, but Karroubi has an unexpectedly large number of counts beginning with the digit 7. The chance of such a large deviation from Benford’s law happening without foul play is only 0.7 per cent, Roukema says. “The simplest interpretation would be that someone interfered in the overall counts per district.”
So, to simplify: Benford’s law does not speak of the choices people make – in particular, selecting the first name on a list – rather it speaks of how numbers randomly appear on huuuuuge lists. In fact, it is precisely when human choices are introduced – as when cheaters make up fictional election results – that Benford’s law breaks down. That breakdown then becomes the indicator of fraud.
So it’s kinda irresponsible to be invoking Benford’s law to say that your candidate is disadvantaged because he isn’t number one on the list. Benford has NOTHING TO DO WITH THAT.
If I had a dirty mind, I would be so tempted to say that invoking Benford’s law is meant to take advantage of the average joe’s ignorance; meant to bludgeon him into submission with the use of magic words that he won’t understand anyway so he’ll just have to rely on the credentials of the person making the announcement – ‘after all, he did say it was based on a law of statistics, uh-huh, yessuh! Not just a theory, mind yuh, but a gosh-darned full-fledged law!’
But then I don’t have a dirty mind, so I’ll just go see how those Acosta cups are doing over at 7-11.
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March 10th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
BY MARLEN V. RONQUILLO
Sunday Stories
www.manilatimes.net
You can’t blame the bishops for breaking tradition to endorse the presidential candidacy of Ang Kapatiran’s J.C. de los Reyes. He is young and earnest—and he looks like an overly-devoted Catholic lay leader. Dress him with a cleric garb, he would easily fit into the image of a dedicated priest.
But if he were a Spanish priest during the time of Spain’s turmoil, in the bloody war between the Republicans and the right-wing zealots of General Franco, I would say that he belongs to Franco’s devoted followers among the religious. Young maybe, but a poster child for the status quo.
Young and for the status quo? There seems to be nothing more contradictory that these two. Youth presupposes dynamism, a break with tradition, a forward-looking mind-set. But JC de los Reyes, despite his public call that Philippine politics should have an alternative, is really a creature of the status quo.
Why do I say this?
Any young politician who loves his people and cares for their future will not only support a Reproductive Health (RH) bill. He would even propose something that is more ambitious—family planning with everything there except abortion (which we really don’t do).
We belong to the planet’s top ten in child production. Our population growth outpaces important benchmarks: economic growth in real terms, yearly increase in food production, health and education investments.
This year, we will be importing a world-record of 2.4 million metric tons of rice and for this the rest of the world is crucifying us (because our massive rice imports have been jacking up rice cost in the world market). Our fraying and aging infrastructure will suffer more stress. There will be a bigger gap between demand on social overhead and actual state investments to meet the widening gap.
Our fabled natural resources, which we held infinite and always there for us, is mostly gone.
The root of all of these? The burgeoning population—which is being tacitly encouraged by bishops who harbor a fundamentalist view of reproduction. And who take “ Go forth and multiply” literally.
Amid all these, JC de los Reyes is not preaching the gospel of change and change of antediluvian mind-set.
Oh, he sounds like those right-wing nuts in the US—talking about moral values and sexual abstinence while the country is plunging into a deep recession.
Even on things earth-bound or on issues of economics, JC is completely clueless.
A bus operator-friend recently showed me a resolution from the city council of Olongapo City—which effectively bans the bus company from offering an alternative bus route between Olongapo City and Metro Manila via the SCTEX. JC de los Reyes, as a member of the city council, led the city councilors that signed the resolution.
You know the three things that JC de los Reyes and the other members of the city council invoked to ban a bus company from offering an alternative bus service? One was traffic congestion. Another was the route was saturated. The third was the crudest of all—a 1989 “verbal” agreement between then Mayor
Dick Gordon and then LTFRB Chairman Remedios Salazar-Fernando which saw no need for another bus service for the city.
For information of JC de los Reyes, who probably signed the city resolution without reading it, here are the facts:
1. The proposed alternative bus service was filed for approval in 2009, 20 years after that “verbal agreement.” So many things have changed since then, from population density, transport requirement etc.
2. The application for an alternative bus service proposes the use of the SCTEX. It will bypass the traditional route and it is an express service. It will not even affect the traditional operators there—who are probably friends of JC de los Reyes It will not even cause traffic congestion.
3. In 1989, Olongapo City was a mono-economy, dependent on a US military naval base. This was pre-Pinatubo, for God’s sake. Now, it is the 21st century.
The cruel cut in this sad incident is this: JC de los Reyes, who is offering himself as an “alternative” from traditional politics would not even recognize that times have changed radically and dramatically in Olongapo City. And there is a need for an alternative bus service.
And an alternative bus service is a break from tradition, one step for the public good, freedom from the grip of traditional operators.
JC is indeed young. But he stands for the status quo, if not the discredited old ways of doing things.
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March 9th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
LP offers experts’ help to remove Acosta name
Comelec says it can’t reformat software
By KRIS BAYOS, RAYMUND ANTONIO
March 8, 2010, 4:04pm
The camp of Senator Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III said the Commission on Elections (Comelec) has no reason not to exclude the embattled Vetallano Acosta from the official roster of presidential candidates after the Liberal Party (LP) offered the services of the party’s information technology experts to help reformat the software that will run the precinct count optical scans (PCOS) machines that will be used in the May 10 elections.
Although disappointed with the Comelec’s belated decision to disqualify the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan standard bearer, Aquino’s spokesperson, Edwin Lacierda said the LP is willing to help the Comelec control the damage it has done to the candidacy of the LP standard bearer.
It was recalled that the LP has been questioning Acosta’s qualification to the presidential race when his supposed running mate, TV host Jay Sonza, and the son of the KBL stalwart and former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Leyte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. have disowned him.
The LP claimed that Acosta’s inclusion in the list is part of a grand scheme to dislodge Senator Aquino as the first in the list of presidential candidates in the official ballot, and to allot the last column for his toughest contender to the race, Nacionalista Party’s Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. alone.
The Comelec did not heed the LP’s contention until it finally disqualified Acosta in a decision it released last Thursday. But despite the Comelec’s decision, Comelec Law Deparment chief Ferdinand Rafanan said it is too late to exclude Acosta from the list of presidential candidates after some nine million ballots have been printed.
Lacierda said that “if the Comelec is on top of the situation, it should face this issue squarely whatever it takes. It is their obligation to face the consequence of their late decision in fairness to Senator Aquino. Justice and fairness dictate that the Comelec should stop complaining and just do it,” Lacierda said.
Lacierda added that the LP is willing to send its IT personnel to help the Comelec reformat the software meant to run the PCOS machine. He also said the Comelec, only “if they have the political will,” can also reprint the ballots by using the resources provided for them under the law.
“It is only a question of reformatting. How difficult can that be if we are willing to offer the services of our IT personnel to help the Comelec? If they can’t do it, we will do it for them. We are willing to send our people to work under the Comelec’s supervision,” Lacierda added.
If the Comelec insists on retaining Acosta in the previously printed and to be printed ballots, Lacierda claimed it will only add up to the public’s doubt on the efficiency of the agency and the success of the first ever automated elections in the country.
Meanwhile, the poll body insisted that it could no longer change the face of the ballots even as the LP can send IT experts to reformat the system to clear Acosta’s name from the list.
“This is the reason we are inviting them to visit the NPO (National Printing Office) so they will understand the process. And if they have queries, they should come to us to discuss the matter,” Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said in an interview.
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January 27th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
Only a meteor slamming into the Philippines can cause a massive breakdown of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines resulting in a failure of automated elections, a congressman said Wednesday.
“I always believe that if a meteor hits the Philippines and knocks out all the machines, then we can go to manual and we will use the ballots and we will count them one by one,” Locsin told Mornings@ANC.
Locsin, chairman of the House Committee on Suffrage, also believes that the Comelec’s automation calendar is still on time despite the delays in the delivery of the PCOS machines.
“Actually we are not late. Overall, the delivery of all the machines is still on time… So far, they are still on time. As I’ve said, we are going ahead,” the congressman said ahead of the scheduled joint congressional hearing on the poll automation at the Senate.
Continue reading ‘Only a meteor hitting the Philippines could stop poll automation’
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January 26th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
Senator Manny Villar refuses to face his Senate peers as it deliberates over possible censure arising from the C-5 ethics complaint.
Cornered on charges of ethical violations as well as allegations of political corruption, Senator Manny Villar refused to face his peers at the Senate as the august legislation body poised to censure him.
Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile insinuated that Villar’s refusal to face his peers at the senate was an indication of guilt. But Villar’s allies repeated pointed out that any decision made by the Senate, with the May 2010 elections being so near, would be colored by the politics of the time. A fair and impartial decision would not be possible, they said, as senators who were either running for President or Vice President would be voting along party lines and political interests — not in the interest of rendering justice.
In this official Press Statement, Manny Villar explains why he refuses to face his peers over the C-5 ethics complaint.
VILLAR SHUNS ONE-SIDED FLOOR DELIBERATIONS
The floor deliberations on the C-5 road extension project at the Senate will have to continue without him, Nacionalista Party (NP) standard-bearer Sen. Manny Villar declared yesterday.
Villar said his Senate foes have tried hard but failed to drag him into the fray by recycling accusations that he benefited from the C-5 road extension project. He said his foes have become so desperate that they now resort to name-calling.
“I was called a coward and a copycat by some of my colleagues. But the truth is I have never evaded the issue. I have answered the issues they threw at me. I stood on the floor of the Senate two years ago to rebut their charges,” Villar said.
“I have always faced the music. But I did not dance to their music and never will. I addressed the Filipino people directly about the C-5 issue. I am available to media to answer questions. My opponents want to make me a whipping boy to boost their political plans. Why should I give them the satisfaction?” the NP presidential candidate added.
Villar said he would also stay away from a looming vote on the Senate floor on the motion by his foes to censure him in connection with the C-5 issue.
He reiterated that the charges against him are all politically motivated. He said it was no coincidence that the C-5 controversy was revived at a time when his ratings were closing in on that of his closest rival, Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno Aquino III.
“Look at the cast of characters on the other side, they are candidates for president or their respective allies,” he said.
Sen. Manuel Roxas III is Aquino’s running mate while another accuser, Sen. Ma. Ana Consuelo Madrigal, is also running for the presidency.
“The Liberal Party panicked when they saw the surveys. They were the ones who leaked the committee report. It’s obvious,” Villar disclosed.
Villar had slashed Aquino’s lead in the surveys by as much as 30 percentage points in less than three months. And in a one-on-one scenario, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) put Aquino’s lead over Villar by a slim eight points in a survey conducted in December last year.
Villar also defended the C-5 project. “I am happy with the C-5 road project because it is now being used by six million of our countrymen from Cavite, Las Piñas, Parañaque, Taguig, and Makati. I had wanted to ease the traffic in our area and I was able to do that. And for that I am proud,” he said.
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