March 6th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
The Philippine Daily Inquirer’s report on a survey showing that Manny Villar lost six percentage points while Joseph Erap Estrada gained six percentage points seems to suggest that the two candidates share support from the same pool of voters.
In their political ads, both candidates emphasize claims of being one with the poor and promise to lift people out of poverty.
Villar loses 6 points; Estrada gains 6 points
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:43:00 03/06/2010
MANILA, Philippines—Not even Sen. Manuel Villar’s speech at the Senate claiming innocence with regard to the C-5 road extension controversy could avert the drop of 6 percentage points in his ratings in the latest Pulse Asia survey.
The results of the February 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions conducted on Feb. 21-25 showed that support for Villar, the standard-bearer of the Nacionalista Party, had declined by 6 percentage points (or from 35 percent to 29 percent), and that his closest rival, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III of the Liberal Party, would have won the presidency if the elections were held last month.
With the noncommissioned survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, support for Aquino was statistically unchanged from 37 percent in January (when he and Villar were on a statistical tie) to 36 percent in February.
The big mover in the survey was Joseph “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who was ousted from the presidency in 2001, convicted of plunder in 2007 and pardoned weeks later.
His support rose to 18 percent last month, up 6 percentage points from January, placing him third in the presidential race.
“This means that Erap has reclaimed the support of the majority of our poor voters, those in the D and E economic classes,” Reuters quoted Estrada’s spokesperson Margaux Salcedo as saying.
Aquino leading in ABC
Pulse Asia noted in its report to the media Friday that Villar’s privilege speech in the Senate clearing himself of wrongdoing in the C-5 road extension project, and the senators’ failure to vote on the committee report seeking to censure him, were among the events that dominated the news headlines in February.
The survey results showed Aquino enjoying a significant lead in Metro Manila (40 percent) and among social classes ABC (43 percent) and D (36 percent).
He shared the top spot with Villar in Luzon outside Metro Manila (33 percent for him, 31 percent for Villar); Visayas (39 percent for him, 38 percent for Villar); and among the poorest class E (36 percent for him, 33 percent for Villar).
The rating of Gilbert Teodoro, the administration’s standard-bearer, rose by 2 percentage points (from 5 to 7 percent). But it is statistically insignificant in light of the survey’s margin of error.
The ratings of the remaining candidates were statistically unchanged.
Bro. Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas (2 percent) and Sen. Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan (1 percent) garnered ratings similar to those in Pulse Asia’s January survey.
Those who received ratings of less than zero were Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.3 percent), Nicanor Perlas (0.2 percent) and JC de los Reyes (0 percent).
Still included in the survey was Vetellano Acosta of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (0.04 percent), who has just been declared a nuisance candidate by the Commission on Elections.
VP race
Aquino’s running mate, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, maintained a significant lead over other vice presidential candidates with 43 percent.
Roxas was followed by Villar’s running mate, Sen. Loren Legarda (27 percent), and Estrada’s running mate, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (15 percent).
The other candidates posted 1-digit ratings: Bayani Fernando (4 percent), Eduardo Manzano (2 percent), Perfecto Yasay (1 percent), Jose “Jay” Sonza (1 percent) and Dominador Chipeco Jr. (0.1 percent).
The survey used face-to-face interviews with 1,800 Filipino adults. For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia used a sample ballot measuring 8.5 x 26 inches, the size of the official ballot of the Commission on Elections.
The respondents who chose a presidential candidate were asked why they did so.
Among the reasons they cited were: Not corrupt/clean record (26 percent); cares for the poor (22 percent); can do something, is doing something, will do something (14 percent); helps, helping others (11 percent); good person (10 percent); used to governing, has experience (7 percent); knowledgeable/ intelligent (5 percent); listens to people (3 percent); and other reasons (1 percent).
Still undecided
Six percent of Filipino voters have yet to decide on their presidential preference or have no candidate in mind, according to the survey.
Seven percent of voters have no vice-presidential preference. Lawrence de Guzman of Inquirer Research, with a report from Reuters
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February 2nd, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
According to the latest SWS survey, Noynoy Aquino is losing ground to Manny Villar. In the results of the SWS survey, Aquino slid down to 42% from 46%, Villar moved up to 35% from 27%, Estrada slid down to 13% from 16%, and Teodoro slid down to 4% down from 5%.
The survey was conducted in December, prior to the Senate hearing on the C-5 controversy where Villar’s colleagues were said to be set to censure him. One would expect that this heavily publicized political free for all at the senate — with several senators running for president — would cause Villar’s survey numbers to fall a couple of notches. At this point, the surfacing of the survey showing Villar gaining ground may actually be a ploy to project that Villar’s forward momentum was hardly affected by the negative publicity. It might be an attempt to project strength in the face of serious challenges.
Today, a news report in the Philippine Daily Inquirer has political analyst Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute of Political and Electoral Reform (IPER), attributing Villar’s “steady” rise in the surveys to the effective messaging of his political ads.
Certainly, the sheer Last Song Syndrome created by the bunch of kids singing Villar’s jingle may be enough to turn people into mindless voting drones. But Casiple proposes that Villar’s messaging may be helping him because of its emphasis and clarity on what he will do rather than what he will fight against.
Here’s what Casiple says:
Sen. Manuel Villar had been able to narrow the gap between him and Aquino not only because of his many ads but also because Aquino had not been able to get across his message of what he would do if he won the presidency.
Casiple acknowledged that Aquino “has come out strongly against corruption and against the sins of the Arroyo administration, but we are electing the nation’s leader here and people expect him to be able to do something about their myriad of problems.”
“The perception is Villar is saying ‘I will take you all out of poverty’ while for Noynoy, it’s like ‘I will think about it but I promise you I won’t steal,’” Casiple added.
Casiple certainly has his adherents and I don’t want to assail the integrity of his perceptual analysis, but it seems unlikely that mere messaging through political ads can trump actual issues. The article in the Inquirer seems, particularly this excerpt, seems to cast Casiple as endorsing Villar.
Reading the article further, Casiple’s analysis doesn’t come up all rosy for Villar as it indicates that although the candidate has made gains, these gains are coming at a slower rate.
While the SWS survey indicated that Aquino was vulnerable, the results showed that Villar’s surge had slowed down. “In the previous survey, his numbers jumped from 27 to 33 percent but now it only increased from 33 to 35 percent,” Casiple said.
He said this was because the number of undecided voters had gone down to just one percent and so for the candidates to move upward in the polls, they would have to raid voters from other camps. “This means the next stage of the campaign will really be a slugfest.”
Casiple further points out what Villar has to do in order to win over Aquino:
“If Senator Villar wants to go up, he will have to find a way to get Estrada’s support or cannibalize Erap. And since Noynoy is now vulnerable, I expect Senator Villar to continue going after him,” Casiple said.
He said Estrada was vulnerable because the public was already thinking that this was going to be a fight between Aquino and Villar.
Casiple said Villar still faced an uphill battle if he wanted to top Aquino because his surge had slowed down.
“The latest survey showed that he got one percentage point from Aquino over the last three weeks. At this rate, it means a deduction of 1 percentage point [from Aquino] every three weeks [but] we only have around 90 days left. So, it’s really going to be hard,” he said.
Only at the foot of the article do we see Casiple saying that the C-5 controversy may actually affect Villar’s numbers:
Casiple added that Villar’s numbers might also be affected in the next survey by the raging C-5 controversy in the Senate.
“It’s expected to be bad for him and I don’t think the Liberal Party will just take this (latest survey results) sitting down,” he said.
I think that the article as a whole might have been poorly constructed and in its construction lent the impression that Casiple was favoring Villar in his analysis.
top 4 in Latest SWS survey: Aquino 42% (down from 46%), Villar 35% (up from 27%), Estrada 13% (down from 16%), and Teodoro 4% (down from 5%)
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January 27th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
Transcript of interview of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile
Q: Sir, kasi kanina medyo nagulat dun sa statement ninyo sa program ni Ted. I heard you on radio this morning, sabi ninyo na nagmeeting nga kayo sa, ilang beses kayong nag-usap ni Senator Villar.
SP: He came to my office several times. The first time he came was when he called the Senate a kangaroo court.
Q: Yes, that was my interview and then that night pumunta siya?
SP: He asked for a lunch with me, and I cancelled the lunch. And without an announcement, he came to the office and I talked to him. And he was pleading with me to help him, but I told him, “Manny,” I said, I am the chairman of the committee, I cannot take sides. I’ll have to preside over the hearing of your case, and I would suggest that you assign some of your lawyers to participate so that they can object to the presentation of evidence, if there are any objectionable evidence presented against you. And at the same time, you assemble your own evidence and present it to us in the committee so that we can take into account your evidence, when we prepare the report. Well, somehow I noticed that there was an effort to really convince me to go soft on him.
Continue reading ‘Interview transcript of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile regarding Villar bribery attempt’
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January 27th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
Just a few days before the official start of the 90 day campaign period for national candidates, Manny Villar may be limping to the starting gate -- hobbled by the C-5 controversy and a new but belated accusation of bribery. If everything is politically motivated, is there any chance for truth to come out?
Current Philippine news now centers on political controversy as political rivals in the 2010 Presidential race engage in a bitter feud at the Philippine Senate.
Even before it closes the book on the ethics complaint against Senator Manny Villar over the C-5 road project controversy, a new controversy has erupted.
Yesterday, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile revealed that some time last year, Senator Manny Villar attempted to bribe him in exchange for dropping the ethics complaint against him.
In this excerpt from the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Enrile narrates the meeting with Villar in which he was allegedly offered a bribe:
Upon Villar’s invitation, the Senate leader said he had lunch with the senator at a Japanese restaurant in Makati City.
Enrile said he “graciously agreed” even if at that time, Villar and his allies in the Senate minority group, filed a case in the Supreme Court to stop the Committee of the Whole’s investigation into his involvement in the C-5 project.
Continue reading ‘Current Philippine news on Villar’s alleged bribe try on Enrile’
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November 29th, 2009 by Malayang Halalan
Former President Joseph Estrada is set to file his certificate of candidacy today.
According to an article from Malaya:
Estrada’s group and their supporters will hear mass at around 9 a.m. at the Liwasang Bonifacio in Manila in observance of Bonifacio Day.
Estrada will unveil the party’s platform while Binay will speak on good governance.
After the program, the party will march to the Comelec via Taft ave. and Intramuros.
As of last night, there are 51 candidates for president, four for vice president and 66 for senator.
Continue reading ‘Former President Joseph Estrada files Presidential candidacy’
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