April 12th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
(from donavictorina.blogspot.com)
Former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman and Bagumbayan vice-presidential candidate Bayani “BF” Fernando has been consistently topping the weekly online mock elections in Facebook, a popular social networking site in the Philippines.
In the latest two-week poll done by Facebook Election 2010 Application, which lasted from March 18-April 1, Fernando led all VP candidates with 45 percent of the votes cast, followed by Perfecto Yasay with 25 percent and Mar Roxas a far third with 13 percent.
The previous online weekly election rounds also saw the former MMDA chairman leading his rivals in the top spot. Bimbo Cabochan, Internet marketing campaign expert and Fernando’s new media head welcomes the overwhelming support from the online sector, “BF is very happy with the news. This just confirms that more and more voters are now thinking and basing their decisions on track record. We’ve always been hopeful of the online community since most Internet users are opinion leaders and they cannot be swayed by gimmicks, surveys or heavy advertising.”
Meanwhile, Senator Dick Gordon has also caught up with his presidential rivals in the same mock elections. For the first time in 14 rounds, Gordon led all candidates with 44 percent followed by Eddie Villanueva and Gilbert Teodoro with 27 percent and 19 percent respectively. Noynoy Aquino placed 4th with 6 percent while Manny Villar landed on the 5th spot with only 2 percent of the votes.
In the senatorial race, Miriam Defensor-Santiago led all candidates with 48 percent of the voters choosing her. Rounding up the top 12 are Pia Cayetano, Bongbong Marcos, Frank Drilon, Juan Ponce Enrile, Ralph Recto, Kata Inocencio, Alex Tinsay, Gilbert Remulla, Risa Hontiveros, Sonia Roco, and Serge Osmeña.
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March 6th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
This blog post comes from a blog called “The View from Below” and what is written here is worth considering when one is reading the latest news about Presidential surveys.
While most Filipinos may not understand the pertinent political issues that should define an election and therefore mold its outcome, surveys reduce complex Philippine political realities into something that is generally understandable — a numbers game.
It is a numbers game, perhaps, more in the sense that the candidate who has the most numbers is in a certain way viewed as the winner of the game.
However, the manner in which survey organizations come up with the numbers has been challenged and subjected to severe critique — usually by those who are in the bottom rung of the surveys or in certain instances, by the leading candidate who gets displaced from pole position.
Given the doubts cast on Philippine political surveys and the capacity of the common Filipino to understand the intricacies of survey design, implementation issues, and the mathematical analysis involved, surveys usually end up as publicity fodder for the leading candidate.
The Survey Says…
Pulse Asia and Social Weather Station (SWS) have been asking the question in their surveys: “If the elections were held today, who would you vote for?”
Worse, now they ask” If the elections were held to day, who in this list would you vote for: Noynoy, Manny, etc etc etc….?
Former Gallup executive David Moore notes that such “vote choice” is a “a forced choice” question that glosses over voter indecision. It does not take into account that statistically, most voters are undecided up to the final moments when t hey actually have to vote.
“The worst sin in poll reporting,” Moore notes, “was hedging.” This is what happens with a “forced choice” question. He also notes that in the US, the undecided can range from a low of 20 percent to as high as 70 percent—depending on how far away the election is.
In his book, The Opinion Makers, Moore makes the startling conclusion that pollsters “do not measure public opinion, they manufacture it.” He anchors this contention on the practice of polling firms to gloss over “voter indecision” during an election campaign. Moore notes:
Moore points out: “There is crisis in public-opinion polling today, a silent crisis that no one wants to talk about. The problem lies not in the declining response rates and increasing difficulty in obtaining representative sample, though these are issues the polling industry has to address. The problem lies, rather, in the refusal of media polls to tell the truth about those surveyed and about the larger electorate. Rather than tell us the essential facts about the public, they feed us a fairy-tale picture of a completely rational, all-knowing and fully engaged citizenry. They studiously avoid reporting on widespread public apathy, indecision and ignorance. The net result is conflicting poll results and a distortion of public opinion that challenges the credibility of the whole polling enterprise. Nowhere is this more often the case than in election polling.”
Isn’t it funny that candidates – even the front runners in the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys — subscribe to these pollsters but actually use other pollsters and studies confidentially at the same time for their strategic planning?
The answer is simple: The confidential studies reveal the true measure of their success (or failure) and accurately guide them in their plans. SWS and Pulse Asia results have been bought and are instruments of public (and media) manipulation. They are there to condition minds to a pre-determined result or, worse, manipulate them ino thinking there is a bandwagon for these cadidates, and not following it will be a waste of votes.
Lokohin niyo lola niyo!
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March 6th, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
The Philippine Daily Inquirer’s report on a survey showing that Manny Villar lost six percentage points while Joseph Erap Estrada gained six percentage points seems to suggest that the two candidates share support from the same pool of voters.
In their political ads, both candidates emphasize claims of being one with the poor and promise to lift people out of poverty.
Villar loses 6 points; Estrada gains 6 points
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:43:00 03/06/2010
MANILA, Philippines—Not even Sen. Manuel Villar’s speech at the Senate claiming innocence with regard to the C-5 road extension controversy could avert the drop of 6 percentage points in his ratings in the latest Pulse Asia survey.
The results of the February 2010 Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions conducted on Feb. 21-25 showed that support for Villar, the standard-bearer of the Nacionalista Party, had declined by 6 percentage points (or from 35 percent to 29 percent), and that his closest rival, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III of the Liberal Party, would have won the presidency if the elections were held last month.
With the noncommissioned survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, support for Aquino was statistically unchanged from 37 percent in January (when he and Villar were on a statistical tie) to 36 percent in February.
The big mover in the survey was Joseph “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who was ousted from the presidency in 2001, convicted of plunder in 2007 and pardoned weeks later.
His support rose to 18 percent last month, up 6 percentage points from January, placing him third in the presidential race.
“This means that Erap has reclaimed the support of the majority of our poor voters, those in the D and E economic classes,” Reuters quoted Estrada’s spokesperson Margaux Salcedo as saying.
Aquino leading in ABC
Pulse Asia noted in its report to the media Friday that Villar’s privilege speech in the Senate clearing himself of wrongdoing in the C-5 road extension project, and the senators’ failure to vote on the committee report seeking to censure him, were among the events that dominated the news headlines in February.
The survey results showed Aquino enjoying a significant lead in Metro Manila (40 percent) and among social classes ABC (43 percent) and D (36 percent).
He shared the top spot with Villar in Luzon outside Metro Manila (33 percent for him, 31 percent for Villar); Visayas (39 percent for him, 38 percent for Villar); and among the poorest class E (36 percent for him, 33 percent for Villar).
The rating of Gilbert Teodoro, the administration’s standard-bearer, rose by 2 percentage points (from 5 to 7 percent). But it is statistically insignificant in light of the survey’s margin of error.
The ratings of the remaining candidates were statistically unchanged.
Bro. Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas (2 percent) and Sen. Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan (1 percent) garnered ratings similar to those in Pulse Asia’s January survey.
Those who received ratings of less than zero were Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.3 percent), Nicanor Perlas (0.2 percent) and JC de los Reyes (0 percent).
Still included in the survey was Vetellano Acosta of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (0.04 percent), who has just been declared a nuisance candidate by the Commission on Elections.
VP race
Aquino’s running mate, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, maintained a significant lead over other vice presidential candidates with 43 percent.
Roxas was followed by Villar’s running mate, Sen. Loren Legarda (27 percent), and Estrada’s running mate, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (15 percent).
The other candidates posted 1-digit ratings: Bayani Fernando (4 percent), Eduardo Manzano (2 percent), Perfecto Yasay (1 percent), Jose “Jay” Sonza (1 percent) and Dominador Chipeco Jr. (0.1 percent).
The survey used face-to-face interviews with 1,800 Filipino adults. For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia used a sample ballot measuring 8.5 x 26 inches, the size of the official ballot of the Commission on Elections.
The respondents who chose a presidential candidate were asked why they did so.
Among the reasons they cited were: Not corrupt/clean record (26 percent); cares for the poor (22 percent); can do something, is doing something, will do something (14 percent); helps, helping others (11 percent); good person (10 percent); used to governing, has experience (7 percent); knowledgeable/ intelligent (5 percent); listens to people (3 percent); and other reasons (1 percent).
Still undecided
Six percent of Filipino voters have yet to decide on their presidential preference or have no candidate in mind, according to the survey.
Seven percent of voters have no vice-presidential preference. Lawrence de Guzman of Inquirer Research, with a report from Reuters
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March 3rd, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
Manny Villar bribing Dick Gordon is like Xerxes trying to bribe Leonidas
This is a note from a purported Facebook account owned or operated by Senator Juan Ponce Enrile’s staff. It has been reposted on Dick Gordon’s Facebook Fan page.
The alleged note from Enrile confirms that Presidential candidate Manny Villar did indeed try to bribe Presidential Candidate Richard “Dick” Gordon to back out of the 2010 elections. Moreover, it reveals that Villar also had made several attempts to bribe Gordon — which the senator refused a number of times.
If at all that Villar did try to bribe Gordon into backing out of the Presidential elections, one can take the liberty of imagining Villar playing the part of Xerxes and Gordon playing the part of Leonidas in the 300.
Here are memorable lines from that movie:
Xerxes: But I am a generous god. I can make you rich beyond all measure. I will make you warlord of all Greece. You will carry my battle standard to the heart of Europa. Your Athenian rivals will kneel at your feet if you will but kneel at mine.
King Leonidas: You are generous as you are divine, O king of kings. Such an offer only a madman would refuse. But the, uh, the idea of kneeling, it’s- You see, slaughtering all those men of yours has, uh, well it’s left a nasty cramp in my leg, so kneeling will be hard for me.
Find Enrile’s Facebook note on the Villar bribery try on Gordon here.
Here is the alleged note by Enrile. But be warned, not everything you find on Facebook may be real or true:
I commend Senator Gordon for unmasking the real character of Senator and presidential candidate Manuel B. Villar as a man who thinks he can buy his way to the highest position in the land with his billions of money.
I understand Senator Gordon has come out to tell the public about the bribe attempt made by Senator Villar through an “emissary” and a “mutual friend.” I confirm that such attempt actually happened and I have no doubt about its veracity because Sen. Gordon told me about it immediately.
My recollection is that when I filed the report of the Committee of the Whole on the Ethics complaint involving the C5 controversy, having been signed by 11 Senators with myself as the author acting as Chairman, my Chief of Staff relayed to me by phone that another Senator, who Villar was supporting to replace me as Senate President, had approached Sen. Gordon to join the plot to oust me and install a new leadership in the Senate.
The approach, which came with an offer for a position of Sen. Gordon’s choice under a “Villar Administration” was turned down outright by Sen. Gordon saying “I cannot, in conscience, do such a thing, especially not to Senator Enrile who I regard as a father.”
On that same day, upon seeing Sen. Gordon arrive at the Senate session, I embraced him and whispered “Thank you, Dick. I know what happened.” At that time, he seemed surprised at my gesture and just hugged me back.
Several days after, when we were about to take up the report on the Floor, I got another report that Sen. Gordon was offered, on top of the first offer for a position if Sen. Villar makes it to the presidency, was likewise offered a huge sum of money to withdraw his signature from my report. I was appalled by this report and felt it was my duty to tell Sen. Gordon that such news was circulating. I called Sen. Gordon and informed him that I will never believe that he will succumb to such a brazen act of bribery.
Sen. Gordon privately confirmed to me that such offer was indeed made and that he felt furious and insulted by the temerity and gall of Villar to think that he can be intimidated by money, much less lured by an offer for a position of power. He immediately said NO to this offer.
Later, I learned that it went even beyond that; that Sen. Villar offered “reimbursement for what Sen. Gordon had so far spent for his presidential bid with an added premium just to convince him to withdraw from the presidential race.
I have known Sen. Gordon from his younger days, and one thing I can say is that this man cannot be bought. Sen. Villar is dead wrong about Sen. Gordon. You do not put a price tag on everyone, especially not Dick Gordon. GORDON IS NOT FOR SALE.
Actually, I knew about the plan to oust me since last December. On the last day of our sessions before the Christmas break, Sen. Allan Peter Cayetano, on orders of his master, Sen. Villar, in no uncertain terms, delivered the threat to my Chief of Staff that if I make a move to gather enough votes in support of my Committee Report, Sen. Villar wants me to know that he will have no other choice but to take the Senate Presidency either for himself or for another Senator of his choice.
As things developed and the co-perpetrators of the coup plot against me began to show their real colors, I surmised that the “emissary” to Sen. Gordon and Sen. Villar’s nominee could be no other than Senator Edgardo J. Angara.
Sen. Angara later feigned ignorance about the plot and professed his loyalty to me. Of course! After all, it did not succeed. But I know first hand from the Senators themselves who signed the resolution to remove me that he was Villar’s nominee as my replacement.
Sen. Angara is a man whose career I helped to start, and nurture: first, as a young lawyer, placing him no less than as the lead and founding partner of the law firm I established (the ACCRA or Angara, Concepcion, Cruz, Regala & Abello Law Offices), and later as President of the University of the Philippines by recommending him to former President Marcos.
Sen. Angara now says that it was the late former President Corazon C. Aquino who launched his career in government. So be it. I don’t anymore care to claim credit for his career nor his success in weaving his way into the corridors of power over the years. I would rather associate myself with more honorable men.
This attempt of Villar is similar to the offer made by another “emissary” to former President Estrada, our standard bearer in the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino- “reimbursement in exchange for withdrawal.” President Estrada rightly turned down this indecent proposal. President Estrada’s candidacy is NOT FOR SALE.
I had earlier revealed that Sen. Villar himself tried to bribe me into not proceeding with the investigation by the Committee of the Whole, offering me “help” for whatever it was I needed. As I said, I replied to him that I can only advice him to participate in the hearings and introduce evidence to counter the charges and evidence against him, and that I am giving him that advice for free, without any consideration. I wish to reiterate to Sen. Villar: I AM NOT FOR SALE.
If you tie all these things up with Sen. Villar’s unprecedented campaign spending for advertisements, cash give-aways to local officials and supporters, his media budget and sum it all up, then you have a complete picture of the man who is now presenting himself as the “best” alternative for the presidency.
Sen. Villar is a pretender posturing as a pleasant and decent person and using his poverty during his childhood days to project himself as pro-poor. It is as if having been once poor was equivalent to really having the heart for the poor.
Villar has to answer what he has done for the poor since he became a multi-billionaire and in his long career as a politician apart from his expensive “give-aways”, helping OFW’s, giving livelihood, building homes for the poor by shelling out money ALL FOR PROPAGANDA.
Sen. Villar must be asked what he did for the poor that he did not make sure was covered by media so he can use it for his campaign propaganda. He should be asked what social cause he has really championed as a legislator, not an ordinary one, by the way, for he served as no less than Speaker of the House and Senate President.
He should he asked how he victimized the poor and the taxpayers of this country with his financial schemes in the housing business, and about the collapse of his own bank, Capitol Bank, mysteriously leaving him richer, not poorer.
Amongst all who are now running for President, Villar stands out, indeed, as the RICHEST and one who thinks that everyone can be bought: the people through his misleading advertisements, some media people who are obviously in his “payola”, political leaders who are vulnerable to his offer to partake of his financial largesse, and all his attempts to bribe even his colleagues and fellow aspirants to the Presidency.
Sen. Villar may have succeeded to a large extent in deploying the huge fortune he acquired, perhaps some by honest means, but definitely, a large part, by the immoral use of his political position, power and clout to advance his own business interests as borne out by the evidence in Senate Ethics case and, much earlier, by the shenanigans exposed on the Floor of the Lower House by Sen. Joker Arroyo,
But on May 10, he must be taught a hard and painful lesson by no less than the electorate. He must be unmasked and rejected as a fake leader in order for the nation to redeem itself. We must clearly send the strongest message to Senator Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, as Senator Richard J. Gordon has said, that THE PRESIDENCY OF THIS NATION, THE FILIPINO PEOPLE, AND THE PHILIPPINES ARE NOT FOR SALE.
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March 2nd, 2010 by Malayang Halalan
Dick Gordon says Manny Villar offered him money to back out of 2010 polls.
After former President Joseph Estrada, another Philippine Presidential candidate claims to have been offered money to back out of the May 2010 polls.
Senator Richard “Dick” Gordon has revealed that he had been offered by Presidential candidate Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar through an emissary a sum of money to reimburse his expenses in exchange for backing out of the 2010 polls.
All though, being a laggard in a number of surveys, bribing Gordon to back out of the 2010 Presidential polls doesn’t seem to present an advantage to Villar. Then again, perhaps the point of this revelation is to characterize Villar in a negative manner.
Here’s a report from the Philippine Daily Inquirer:
Gordon: Villar offered money for my poll withdrawal
By Cathy C. Yamsuan
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 11:47:00 03/02/2010
MANILA, Philippines – Presidential candidate and Senator Richard Gordon claimed on Tuesday that his rival, Nacionalista Party standard bearer and Senator Manuel Villar Jr., offered to reimburse his expenses in the campaign in exchange for his backing out of the race.
Gordon said that Villar sent an emissary recently offering him money and “whatever Cabinet position” Gordon would want in exchange for his withdrawal from the 10-man presidential race and his support for the reelection bid of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, who has sponsored the censure of Villar for conflict-of-interest in the C-5 road project.
In an interview aired over radio station dzBB, Gordon said the visit by Villar’s emissary, whom he refused to identify, was witnessed by one of his children.
Former president Joseph Estrada revealed that he, too, was offered to be reimbursed on his campaign expenses in exchange for withdrawing from the race. Estrada did not name who made the offer to him.
Gordon, a candidate of his Bagumbayan Party, is among the presidential bets lagging in the surveys.
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