Success of automated elections crucial to economy in 2010
Who will succeed Gloria Macapagal Arroyo?
A recent article from Reuters identified “Five political risks to watch in the Philippines” and these are:
1. The successor to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
2. Internal security
3. Corruption and the rule of law
4. Government effectiveness
5. Environment
Identified as a crucial element to watch out for under the heading of ” SUCCESSOR TO PRESIDENT GLORIA MACAPAGAL ARROYO” is if the country’s electoral system produces a clear and credible winner for the position of President in the May 2010 polls.
Here’s that excerpt:
The Philippines elects a new president on May 10, and many of the candidates are already making populist policy promises. The race remains wide open and there is no clear favourite at this stage despite the son of revered former President Cory Aquino taking a strong lead in opinion polls. Former President Joseph Estrada is also among the candidates, which is a worry for markets because of his lack of fiscal discipline and stories of policy being formulated during late-night drinking sessions with gambling buddies. Other frontrunners are billionaire property developer-turned-politician Manuel “Manny” Villar, and former defence chief Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro. [ID:nSP510426]
What to watch:
– The candidates and their platforms. As clear frontrunners emerge, their policy pledges and the implications for investment, governance and security will impact markets. [ID:nMAN118467]
– The stance of leading candidates on fiscal management will be a particular focus, given the necessity of boosting revenues and curbing spending to reduce the budget deficit.
– The worst-case scenario for markets would be a failed election that does not produce a clear and credible winner. This could be because of severe election violence and intimidation, or possible problems in a new automated voting system that is being tried for the first time. This outcome would weaken the peso <PHP=> and the stock market <.PSI>, with some analysts saying the main stock index could tumble below 2,600 points. [ID:nSGE60K025]
What strikes me is that despite the obvious importance of ensuring the success of the country’s first ever automated elections, more attention has been given to the possibility of its failure than the clear and definite strides made toward ensuring that poll automation runs without a hitch in May.
In November and December last year, whenever Comelec Chairman Jose Melo said that he was worried over what he virtually described as a “lack of progress” in the automation of the May polls, the statement hogged the frontpages of newspapers and first gaps of broadcast news programs. In a way, it seemed that the Comelec was saying that if automated election failed, it would not be the fault of the Comelec and all blame would fall on the supplier — Smartmatic-TIM.
All considered, poll automation doesn’t have many friends and a lot more people would benefit from its dismal failure rather than its success.
Politicians, despite all their chest thumping about their personal integrity and calls for clean elections, would rather have manual elections because this would enable them to resort to their huge store of tried and tested formulas for winning at all costs — or prices, if you want to be direct about it.
Certainly, the hoards of middlemen and brokers of industry of “winning at all costs” certainly don’t want automated elections to succeed because there is no way to manipulate the results. You can manipulate the voters, for sure, but that would be a costlier enterprise than just waiting for the ballots to arrive at the canvassing centers and doing their magic in the comfort of a hotel. Money won’t change hands for an assured win at the polls, or at least, not as much.
As the election draws near, we think that what is more crucial is not spotting the kinks in poll automation and wailing that the world is about to end. What we ought to be doing is to plan out steps and make ready to ensure that it does succeed.
Poll watchers, instead of devoting their time to watching the tally of ballots at precincts, should be mobilized to ensure that everyone who can vote, actually goes out and vote. They should also re-orient themselves to reporting any untoward incidents (ballots and PCOS machines not being delivered to the precinct, violence, and other activities that would disrupt the order on elections day.)
If poll automation succeeds, it will be unlike other elections were only candidates win. If poll automation succeeds, every Filipino would have won a crucial victory against the proven evils of manual elections and be on the road towards a real, monumental change in political culture.
Whoever win the 2010 election will face all the problems of our country. It will be difficult for them to lead our country in crisis